- Scott Galloway, the bestselling author and well-known tech-industry pundit, is a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
- The following is his recent blog post in full, republished with permission. It originally ran on his own blog, “No Mercy / No Malice.“
- Galloway’s making his yearly predictions regarding all things tech, big pharma, and the 2020 presidential race.
- He predicts that the Democratic nomination will come down to Mayors Mike Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg.
- Hulu will be acquired by Disney+, Uber Eats will get sold, and Mark Zuckerberg may be charged in criminal court.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
So, why make predictions? Eisenhower said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable.” The same is true for predictions — they matter for the strategy and data behind them. Predictions are useless, but scenario planning is invaluable.
2020 is the year of health tech
Amazon experimented internally before going prime time with its most impressive and valuable business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). It’s doing the same thing with healthcare. Amazon is the second-largest employer in the US and is now offering health services to its employees, which likely costs them between $3 and $4 billion per year.
Our time on earth is finite, and the most value-accretive firms and offerings in the future will be those that extend or enhance time. They will be time machines.
Amazon will also reduce the staggering amount of time/life being absorbed managing your own, or a loved one’s, healthcare. Caring for a child with diabetes requires an average of 92 minutes per day. Healthcare is ripe for disruption. Amazon will bypass $1 trillion and begin its march toward $2 trillion as the pharma and insurance sectors begin leaking value to Amazon.
War of egos
As nations command fewer resources due to a baby boom generation focused solely on their own financial well-being, individuals with greater agility (the wealth of small nations) and less oversight begin proxy wars against each other. First up: MBS vs. Bezos.
Democratic nominee is Bloomberg or Buttigieg
Democrats are rallying around one thing … who can beat Trump. Two things matter when removing a standing president from office: activate the base and appeal to centrists.
Trump will activate the Democratic base. Dems will realize, per Obama’s admonition, that they need to appeal to the middle. Trump and Bloomberg are running Super Bowl ads. We have a reality TV president, and viewers translate what they see on TV to real life. All of America will see the ad matchup between Trump and Bloomberg. They’ll start believing that’s also a matchup for the ballot box.
The other candidates will beat each other up through Iowa and New Hampshire, with no clear leader, and show up to Super Tuesday with little money, a billionaire having purchased the best seats. It will be Super Billionaire Tuesday.
Cybersecurity firm stocks soar in 2020
The US receives more inbound cyber attacks than any other country. We’ll see a step-up in brazen attacks, especially leading up to the election. Cybersecurity stocks will be up 20-30%.
Apple up 30% on move to rundle
All the pieces in place, more than 90% of the Fortune 500 have a recurring-revenue relationship with Microsoft. Apple will launch a rundle relationship (recurring revenue bundle) with the 100 million wealthiest people on the planet, who will get their phone, watch, listening device, laptop, music, news, and validation that they are our economy’s apostles: wealthy people who think differently (innovators).
- Sonos acquired, most likely by one of the Four
- Hulu brand goes away (absorbed into Disney+)
- Roku & Shopify make iconic acquisition
- Tesla stock declines 50% (sorry, can’t help it)
- Tom Petty, George Michael, and Prince tour again (hologram live performances become a thing)
- Uber exits food delivery (sells Uber Eats)
- Netflix stock declines 20%+ as capital floods into category; the firm makes an acquisition focused on distribution (a weakness)
- FedEx is acquired
- A stablecoin, eerily similar to Libra, is introduced by a company that commands the trust Facebook lacks
- Mark Zuckerberg and/or Adam Neumann is criminally charged
I’ve been told by CEOs and elected officials that our predictions made them contemplate actions they hadn’t previously considered. Put another way, predictions aren’t guessing, but catalysts for thinking and action.
So, my prediction is I’ll make a greater effort to match my mood to my blessings — less anger, more appreciation. Also, that I’ll have the courage to not assume people are telepathic, and tell them I respect, admire, and love them.
What are your predictions?